2004 United States presidential election in Montana
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| Turnout | 70.6% (of registered voters) 64.2% (of voting age population) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County Results
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Solid R |
| Cook Political Report | Solid R |
| Research 2000 | Solid R |
| Zogby International | Likely R |
| Washington Post | Likely R |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R |
| Washington Times | Solid R |
| The New York Times | Solid R |
| CNN | Likely R |
| Newsweek | Solid R |
| Associated Press | Solid R |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely R |
Polling
[edit]Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]
Fundraising
[edit]Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]
Analysis
[edit]Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won six counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.
Results
[edit]| 2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 266,063 | 59.07% | 3 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 173,710 | 38.56% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 6,168 | 1.37% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | 1,764 | 0.39% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 1,733 | 0.38% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 996 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| Write Ins. | - | 11 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | 450,445 | 100.00% | 6 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 64.2% | ||||
By county
[edit]| County | George W. Bush Republican |
John Kerry Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 3,067 | 72.30% | 1,103 | 26.00% | 72 | 1.70% | 1,964 | 46.30% | 4,242 |
| Big Horn | 2,028 | 47.04% | 2,215 | 51.38% | 68 | 1.58% | -187 | -4.34% | 4,311 |
| Blaine | 1,424 | 51.45% | 1,300 | 46.97% | 44 | 1.59% | 124 | 4.48% | 2,768 |
| Broadwater | 1,778 | 75.47% | 533 | 22.62% | 45 | 1.90% | 1,245 | 52.85% | 2,356 |
| Carbon | 3,342 | 62.81% | 1,847 | 34.71% | 132 | 2.48% | 1,495 | 28.10% | 5,321 |
| Carter | 623 | 87.87% | 76 | 10.72% | 10 | 1.41% | 547 | 77.15% | 709 |
| Cascade | 19,028 | 56.87% | 13,701 | 40.95% | 730 | 2.18% | 5,327 | 15.92% | 33,459 |
| Chouteau | 1,913 | 65.49% | 946 | 32.39% | 62 | 2.12% | 967 | 33.10% | 2,921 |
| Custer | 3,297 | 65.31% | 1,630 | 32.29% | 121 | 2.40% | 1,667 | 33.02% | 5,048 |
| Daniels | 764 | 68.28% | 326 | 29.13% | 29 | 2.59% | 438 | 39.15% | 1,119 |
| Dawson | 2,884 | 64.32% | 1,494 | 33.32% | 106 | 2.36% | 1,390 | 31.00% | 4,484 |
| Deer Lodge | 1,725 | 37.97% | 2,700 | 59.43% | 118 | 2.60% | -975 | -21.46% | 4,543 |
| Fallon | 1,178 | 79.01% | 289 | 19.38% | 24 | 1.61% | 889 | 59.63% | 1,491 |
| Fergus | 4,425 | 72.22% | 1,582 | 25.82% | 120 | 1.96% | 2,843 | 46.40% | 6,127 |
| Flathead | 26,019 | 67.27% | 11,587 | 29.96% | 1,072 | 2.77% | 14,432 | 37.31% | 38,678 |
| Gallatin | 22,392 | 56.20% | 16,405 | 41.18% | 1,045 | 2.62% | 5,987 | 15.02% | 39,842 |
| Garfield | 590 | 90.08% | 52 | 7.94% | 13 | 1.98% | 538 | 82.14% | 655 |
| Glacier | 1,828 | 40.07% | 2,641 | 57.89% | 93 | 2.04% | -813 | -17.82% | 4,562 |
| Golden Valley | 396 | 75.86% | 119 | 22.80% | 7 | 1.34% | 277 | 53.06% | 522 |
| Granite | 1,144 | 71.28% | 404 | 25.17% | 57 | 3.55% | 740 | 46.11% | 1,605 |
| Hill | 3,505 | 52.65% | 2,997 | 45.02% | 155 | 2.33% | 508 | 7.63% | 6,657 |
| Jefferson | 3,844 | 65.51% | 1,881 | 32.06% | 143 | 2.44% | 1,963 | 33.45% | 5,868 |
| Judith Basin | 944 | 73.41% | 322 | 25.04% | 20 | 1.56% | 622 | 48.37% | 1,286 |
| Lake | 7,245 | 57.61% | 4,960 | 39.44% | 371 | 2.95% | 2,285 | 18.17% | 12,576 |
| Lewis and Clark | 16,494 | 55.27% | 12,717 | 42.61% | 632 | 2.12% | 3,777 | 12.66% | 29,843 |
| Liberty | 734 | 71.06% | 281 | 27.20% | 18 | 1.74% | 453 | 43.86% | 1,033 |
| Lincoln | 5,889 | 69.70% | 2,320 | 27.46% | 240 | 2.84% | 3,569 | 42.24% | 8,449 |
| Madison | 2,868 | 72.92% | 983 | 24.99% | 82 | 2.08% | 1,885 | 47.93% | 3,933 |
| McCone | 791 | 69.57% | 320 | 28.14% | 26 | 2.29% | 471 | 41.43% | 1,137 |
| Meagher | 698 | 71.74% | 247 | 25.39% | 28 | 2.88% | 451 | 46.35% | 973 |
| Mineral | 1,242 | 67.61% | 542 | 29.50% | 53 | 2.89% | 700 | 38.11% | 1,837 |
| Missoula | 23,989 | 45.73% | 26,983 | 51.44% | 1,482 | 2.83% | -2,994 | -5.71% | 52,454 |
| Musselshell | 1,663 | 74.01% | 538 | 23.94% | 46 | 2.05% | 1,125 | 50.07% | 2,247 |
| Park | 4,771 | 58.06% | 3,199 | 38.93% | 248 | 3.02% | 1,572 | 19.13% | 8,218 |
| Petroleum | 228 | 78.08% | 55 | 18.84% | 9 | 3.08% | 173 | 59.24% | 292 |
| Phillips | 1,677 | 77.28% | 456 | 21.01% | 37 | 1.71% | 1,221 | 56.27% | 2,170 |
| Pondera | 1,853 | 64.79% | 956 | 33.43% | 51 | 1.78% | 897 | 31.36% | 2,860 |
| Powder River | 856 | 83.19% | 154 | 14.97% | 19 | 1.85% | 702 | 68.22% | 1,029 |
| Powell | 1,993 | 70.42% | 761 | 26.89% | 76 | 2.69% | 1,232 | 43.53% | 2,830 |
| Prairie | 546 | 74.18% | 181 | 24.59% | 9 | 1.22% | 365 | 49.59% | 736 |
| Ravalli | 13,279 | 66.84% | 6,144 | 30.93% | 444 | 2.23% | 7,135 | 35.91% | 19,867 |
| Richland | 3,110 | 72.19% | 1,120 | 26.00% | 78 | 1.81% | 1,990 | 46.19% | 4,308 |
| Roosevelt | 1,762 | 43.74% | 2,195 | 54.49% | 71 | 1.76% | -433 | -10.75% | 4,028 |
| Rosebud | 1,982 | 55.29% | 1,520 | 42.40% | 83 | 2.32% | 462 | 12.89% | 3,585 |
| Sanders | 3,461 | 67.16% | 1,502 | 29.15% | 190 | 3.69% | 1,959 | 38.01% | 5,153 |
| Sheridan | 1,159 | 56.87% | 846 | 41.51% | 33 | 1.62% | 313 | 15.36% | 2,038 |
| Silver Bow | 6,381 | 39.67% | 9,307 | 57.86% | 396 | 2.46% | -2,926 | -18.19% | 16,084 |
| Stillwater | 3,090 | 73.34% | 1,025 | 24.33% | 98 | 2.33% | 2,065 | 49.01% | 4,213 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,509 | 76.10% | 445 | 22.44% | 29 | 1.46% | 1,064 | 53.66% | 1,983 |
| Teton | 2,232 | 66.45% | 1,047 | 31.17% | 80 | 2.38% | 1,185 | 35.28% | 3,359 |
| Toole | 1,583 | 68.50% | 690 | 29.86% | 38 | 1.64% | 893 | 38.64% | 2,311 |
| Treasure | 348 | 72.20% | 121 | 25.10% | 13 | 2.70% | 227 | 47.10% | 482 |
| Valley | 2,476 | 61.62% | 1,431 | 35.61% | 111 | 2.76% | 1,045 | 26.01% | 4,018 |
| Wheatland | 706 | 72.11% | 250 | 25.54% | 23 | 2.35% | 456 | 46.57% | 979 |
| Wibaux | 407 | 72.68% | 144 | 25.71% | 9 | 1.61% | 263 | 46.97% | 560 |
| Yellowstone | 40,903 | 61.71% | 24,120 | 36.39% | 1,263 | 1.90% | 16,783 | 25.32% | 66,286 |
| Totals | 266,063 | 59.07% | 173,710 | 38.56% | 10,672 | 2.37% | 92,353 | 20.51% | 450,445 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 59.1% | 38.6% | Denny Rehberg |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[8]
- Jack Galt
- Thelma Baker
- John Brenden
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) - ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
- ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
- ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
- ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
- ^ "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
- ^ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved February 17, 2022.
- ^ "Not Found". Archived from the original on April 25, 2006. Retrieved October 10, 2009.
